UP Election Surveys show SP vs BJP contest; Congress far behind


New Delhi: The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the ruling Samajwadi Party (SP) in Uttar Pradesh appear to be in a neck-and-neck contest in the state assembly election due early next year, with Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) projected to come third, according to most surveys in the state. If this comes true, no party will be able to make the government on its own.

Congress would do even worse than before and is not expected to win more than 10 seats. However, these Congress seats could be crucial in supporting either Akhilesh or Mayavati to become the next CM.

The UP Assembly polls are due in May 2017 and the BJP is hoping to repeat its 2014 Lok Sabha election performance in the state when the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) won 73 out of the 80 Lok Sabha seats. The elections are also crucial for BSP, as another loss could permanently hurt the mercurial Mayavati-led party

The India TV-C Voter survey projects BJP to win within a range of 134 to 150 seats, while the SP is projected to win 133 to 149 seats, both short of a clear majority in the 403-seat assembly.

The survey projected Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) to win 95 to 111 seats, while the Congress, which has already started a high-voltage poll campaign in the state, is projected to win only 5 to 13 seats. Others, including independents, are projected to win within a range of 4 to 12 assembly seats.

Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav leads the list of ‘first choice for CM post’ with 32.8 percent in his favour, closely followed by BSP supremo Mayawati with 28.2 percent. The BJP is yet to announce its chief ministerial candidate in UP.

A survey by ABP News and Lokniti CSDS in August 2016 had forecast a hung Assembly, with the ruling Samajwadi Party (SP) likely to win most seats. According to the survey, the SP leads with 141-151 seats with a 30% vote share. On seat projection, the survey shows the BJP slightly ahead of the BSP, with a seat projection of 124-134 and a vote share of 27%, while the BSP is left with 103-113 seats and a vote share of 26%.

According to the survey the decision to make Sheila Dikshit its chief ministerial candidate does not seem to be working for Coogress, at least for now.

Another Survey by HuffPo-CVoter in Uttar Pradesh also shows if assembly elections were held today, the Bhartiya Janata Party and the Samajwadi Party would be close winning around 134-150 seats each. No party would get a clear majority in the 403-seat strong assembly but Congress would be decimated once again.