Survey: Difficult for SAD-BJP to retain Punjab; AAP favourite
Punjab is going to witness a triangular contest for the first time in decades featuring SAD-BJP, Congress and AAP. Mahapunjab’s team spoke to over 4 thousand Punjabi selected randomly on phone in the last 2 weeks. We don’t claim the exercise to be a scientific opinion poll, but it provided us with a good insight into what’s happening on the ground.We would provide the detailed analysis later this week but highlights are provided here.
Congress is unlikely to win the Punjab elections on its own. It’s not that BJP-SAD government, led by the Badal family, is doing a great job in governing the state. The current government has been a failure in providing jobs, reducing corruption or handling drugs issue.
However, Congress is not able to take advantage of anti-incumbency against Badals. There’s a lot of infighting in the Party with Rahul/Sonia Gandhi not even able to decide its leader in Punjab. Amarinder Singh may be a good CM candidate but he does not have the high command backing.
Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD), led by the father-son duo of Prakash Singh Badal and Sukhbir Singh Badal, is also considered nepotistic, corrupt and ineffectual. However, SAD retains a decent hold on rural Punjab and so have BJP with its core vote bank.
AAP has a very systematic campaign with a clear-cut message on combating Corruption and Drugs. However after Chhotepur corruption scam, Sidhu Fiasco and rebellion of local leaders in Punjab, AAP is losing steam fast.
That said, AAP is still the most likely party to form the government, if needed, with outside support from Congress, given people’s frustration with BJP/SAD ruling alliance.