‘Cunning’ Modi plots to run Pakistan Dry: Pak Analysts

baglihar-dam-kashmir

Pakistan has broken every solemn promise and treaty in order to support terrorists in Kashmir and around the world for decades. But it expects , rather demands, that India honour the highly unfair and outdated Indus Waters Treaty that grants more than 80% of the total water to Pakistan, leaving just 20% to the upper riparian state, India.

Taking the offensive right into the heart of Pakistan, India decided on Monday to suspend the meeting of the Indus Water Commission and explore ways to use its share of water of rivers flowing into Pakistan, besides hinting that it could revive construction of the Tulbul project in Jammu & Kashmir.
“Blood and water cannot flow simultaneously,” Prime Minister Narendra Modi told a meeting where the decisions designed to make Pakistan pay for the terrorist attack on the Uri Army camp were taken, extending the retaliation against the strike beyond efforts to isolate Pakistan diplomatically.

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Under the treaty, which was signed by Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru and Pakistan President Ayub Khan in September 1960, water of six rivers – Beas, Ravi, Sutlej, Indus, Chenab and Jhelum – were to be shared between the two countries.

ahmer-bilal-soofi

ahmer-bilal-soofi

A partisan Pakistani analyst Ahmer Bilal Soofi says “There is no provision in the Indus Waters Treaty to scrap the agreement unilaterally. If India does so, it’ll violate international law.” However, he had no answer to how this will stop India from abrogating the treaty.

“There is no precedent where a country has reneged on an international agreement. Such agreements are not between governments but between states — and states are bound to honour them,” he added.

Soofi Added, “If India scraps the treaty, then it will be considered an aggressive step which could jeopardise regional peace and security.” However, considering the fact that Pakistan is doing everything it can to destabilise India and Afghanistan, India may just prefer to face open aggression, rather than asymmetrical terrorism.

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Indian sources said that India could even consider walking out of the Indus Water Treaty (IWT) if Pakistan does not rein in terrorists, adding that the water-sharing pact is not sacrosanct.

Jamaat Ali Shah

Jamaat Ali Shah

A worried Jamaat Ali Shah, the former Indus waters commissioner of Pakistan, said. “India cannot walk out of the agreement unilaterally, though the two countries can make changes in the agreement with mutual consensus.”

A former Pakistani prime minister’s adviser on water and agriculture resources, Kamal Majeedullah, thinks India is desperate after losing the case on Kishanganga hydroelectric plant in the International Court of Arbitration. However, a cursory reading of the case will show that Pakistan lost the Kishan Ganga case badly before ICJ.

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Majeedullah said India was already stealing water from Pakistan’s rivers. “The International Telemetry System should be installed to monitor the flow of water from India,” he added. “Pakistan should not allow a revision of the treaty which was brokered by the World Bank.”

The steps show the Modi government will not restrict its offensive against Islamabad to just the diplomatic arena. Former foreign minister Yashwant Sinha said, “I am glad that we are finally moving away from the meek posture (of the earlier governments).”